Friday, October 27, 2006

NFL Week 8 Teaser Pick:

Houston +9 W
Philly -1/2 L ( I guess I can't win every week)

Houston is the better team here with the better quarterback.

Philly is one of the best teams in the league and will get back on track with a win at home. Note: as of Friday this game at some places had been moved to -8, due to Byron Leftwich being listed doubtful. In any case, play Philly at -2.5 or less.

YTD Record 7-0-1
Rarely do you get paid off like this:











FullTiltPoker Game #1153318155: Table Spotted Leaf - $1/$2 - Pot Limit Omaha Hi/Lo - 19:40:06 ET - 2006/10/26
Seat 1: redapplefalls ($45)
Seat 2: Deputy_True ($79)
Seat 3: MegaDisgruntled ($430.65)
Seat 4: Scoop187 ($123.70)
Seat 5: pregoVI ($185.55)
Seat 6: predator06 ($200)
Seat 7: BillTheButcher8 ($237)
Seat 8: hoju616 ($43.70)
Seat 9: AMARGOSA27 ($249.10)
Scoop187 posts the small blind of $1
pregoVI posts the big blind of $2
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to MegaDisgruntled [3h Kc Ah Ac]
BillTheButcher8 folds
hoju616 folds
AMARGOSA27 calls $2
redapplefalls folds
Deputy_True calls $2
MegaDisgruntled raises to $11
Scoop187 folds
pregoVI folds
AMARGOSA27 calls $9
Deputy_True calls $9
*** FLOP *** [Jc 9d Tc]
AMARGOSA27 checks
Deputy_True checks
MegaDisgruntled bets $36
AMARGOSA27 calls $36
Deputy_True raises to $68, and is all in
MegaDisgruntled calls $32
AMARGOSA27 calls $32
*** TURN *** [Jc 9d Tc] [Qc]
AMARGOSA27 checks
MegaDisgruntled bets $30
AMARGOSA27 raises to $60
MegaDisgruntled raises to $90
AMARGOSA27 calls $30
*** RIVER *** [Jc 9d Tc Qc] [4s]
AMARGOSA27 bets $80.10, and is all in
MegaDisgruntled calls $80.10
*** SHOW DOWN ***
AMARGOSA27 shows [4c 9c As 3c] (a flush, Queen high)
MegaDisgruntled shows [3h Kc Ah Ac] (a Royal Flush)
MegaDisgruntled wins the side pot ($340.20) with a Royal Flush
Deputy_True mucks
MegaDisgruntled wins the main pot ($237) with a Royal Flush
Deputy_True adds $80
AMARGOSA27 is sitting out
No low hand qualified
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $580.20 Main pot $240. Side pot $340.20. Rake $3
Board: [Jc 9d Tc Qc 4s]
Seat 1: redapplefalls didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: Deputy_True mucked [Ad Ts 2d 8h] - HI: a straight, Queen high
Seat 3: MegaDisgruntled (button) showed [3h Kc Ah Ac] and won ($577.20) with HI: a Royal Flush
Seat 4: Scoop187 (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 5: pregoVI (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: predator06 is sitting out
Seat 7: BillTheButcher8 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: hoju616 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: AMARGOSA27 showed [4c 9c As 3c] and lost with HI: a flush, Queen high

Monday, October 23, 2006

If you have never seen this comic strip, bookmark it now, it is HILARIOUS, and all poker.

http://plusev.net/

Friday, October 20, 2006

NFL Week 7 Teaser Pick

Indianapolis -2.5 W
Oakland +9 W

Indianapolis is 16-2 SU their last 18 at home, and playing against a losing team, basically just needing to win the game outright, looks like the right side here.

Oakland, looking for their first win of the year, will keep it close against a team that was heartbroken over a Monday night meltdown against the Bears. Teams that get up to play a team and then manage to lose in heartbreaking fashion tend to perform poorly the following week. Let's not forget, both teams are bad and have lost their last 5 games. I'll take the home team getting points.

YTD Record: 6-0-1

Thursday, October 19, 2006

Are you overplaying your Aces?
Let's look at a hand that seems to lose a lot of money for some players.

You have AA48, let's say in early position. The second hand is a hand that may call your large pot level bet. For betting sake, let's say you pot bet to $20 and get one caller.

This is a tough hand to play in PL and NL variations of hi/lo. If you see a flop without a 2 and a 3, or a 2 or a 3, chances are that your low is not very good. If you get some high cards, somebody might have 2 pair and you could be a huge dog. Let's look at some flops here and what they mean to your hand.

Oh boy, you are a 49-51 dog now, basically a coin flip. Out of position is the worst place to be here. You could check and hope he does not bet, or you could fire away a big bet and hope he folds. Either way, your hand is not good here. If you are last to act, you could always hope for a check and then force your opponent out with a pot bet. Let's hope he wasn't slow playing the next example.


Now you are in deep trouble. You are now a 74-26 dog or close to 3-1 if you prefer. If you fire out a pot bet and get raised, you are gonna have to fold, period. Two pair is not something you want to run into in this situation, nor a set. If you are last to act and get a check, you could try to get your opponent to fold, but a raise could get you into further trouble.

If you have this flop:Now you are 51-49 favorite, but basically a coin flip like the with the first example. Proceed with caution.

So tell me Mega, what kind of flops do I want to see?

Flops that contain filler cards, 23567. If the flops come 56K, you are now a 65-35 favorite.

Flops that have an ace, even if somebody has A234, you are over a 60% favorite.

If you are playing no limit, the best decision here might be to limp early and shove all-in against a raise, or if in late position, shove all-in then and steal 3 or 4 limpers blinds. You might get a very loose call for your whole stack, which seem to happen more than it should. You are a 63-37 favorite over something like A2KK. At worst you run against AA23 and you are a 63-37 dog, which is rare. And don't forget the value of a flush draw, this either tremendously helps your hand or hurts your hand. In the examples given, if 2 of a suit falls and you don't have 2 of the same suit, your chances could be lessened severly, or enhanced.

The examples above are just a few of the multitude of possibilities that you can see. Next time you get a hand with aces, maybe one of these examples will pop into your head and stop you from making that "doomed to fail" bet. If it does, drop me a line.

The article a couple of weeks ago about the board pairing on the flop got me several emails. Some players cited betting very heavy when they made their trips, regardless of other cards in their hand. One player stopped short of going all-in when he remembered the article. He said it would have cost him his whole stack, as he though his trips were golden. My goal here is not only to offer some enlightenment, but doing the research helps me to avoid situations where it looks great but where I am way behind. Knowing quickly that I might be a 57% favorite or better is a great thing to know. Knowing when to fold is better. Knowing the player is, well, an article for another day.

Good luck at the tables, you will see me at Full Tilt 1/2 and higher or at Pokerstars.

Wednesday, October 18, 2006

I hate not having my chat. There are so many new donks coming from all the sites that won't take US action. They see 80% of the flops and want to give me advice. Just wait until I get my chat back.

Friday, October 13, 2006

NFL Week 6 Teaser Pick:

St. Louis +9
Carolina +9

St. Louis has the best home record since 1999 and Seattle, without Shaun Alexander, is struggling.

The Baltimore-Carolina game is all about defense. In a game where the over/under is 33, I'll take the team getting the points. I hope this game is not televised in my area, I can't think of a more boring game to watch. This could end up 6-3.

YTD: 5-0-1

Thursday, October 12, 2006

I lost my chat at Full Tilt for a month!

One of the annoying beggars asked for $5 and said that they would pay it back. I made a joke by asking everybody for $50 and I saying I was NOT going to pay it back. Got some LOL's and 15 minutes later my chat was gone for soliciting.

Come on Full Tilt, bite me. Nobody plays more 1/2 NL and PL08 than me on your site. I can say all kinds of shit without even a warning and you cut me off for this?

Full Tilt, you are number 1 in my book, (extend middle finger.)

Tuesday, October 10, 2006

LOOKED BETTER THAN IT WAS!

1/2 PL08 - Here is a hand that looked awesome, but the lack of a flush draw made me the underdog.



My AA35 looked awesome preflop and I potted it for $11 and and got one caller. The flop came and I potted again, got a raise, and reraised all-in. Total Pot was now $400.

I was looking great I thought, I had top set, and 3rd nut low draw, against a reasonably good, but loose player. The cards were flipped up and the turn brought all high cards and I won. However, in retrospect, I was a small dog.

I was the dog, not because of the low wrap my opponent had, but solely on the fact that I lacked the flush draw. If my opponent had anything else but 2 diamonds here, I was at least a 57-43 favorite.

I can't say that I would have played this hand any different, however, remember how important a flush draw is to the value of your overall hand.

Sunday, October 08, 2006

Week 5 NFL teaser pick:

7 pt. teaser - Carolina (pk) and Chicago -2.5